State Democrats are panicking as Gov. Kathy Hochul appears to be blowing the race against Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin in solidly blue New York amid worsening polls, fundraising scandals and campaign messaging misfires.
They also worry about her campaign’s refusal to focus on concerns that New Yorkers care the most about, like crime and the economy, heading to the Nov. 8 election.
“You’re saying, ‘Abortion, abortion, abortion.’ That is going to leave a bad taste,” a Democratic insider told The Post.
“It’s the economy, stupid,” the source emphasized, borrowing the famous tagline fed to then-candidate Bill Clinton by campaign strategist James Carville in his 1992 upset of incumbent President George H.W. Bush.
Yet key supporters say Hochul is still locking herself in a “bunker” amid a barrage of attacks from Zeldin over rising crime, inflation and alleged pay-to-play with campaign donors.
“Her campaign seems like a hot mess on the best of days. All they know how to do is use people like ATMs,” another party ally said.
Inside her donor-padded war room, she is purportedly pointing in vain at Zeldin’s pro-life position on abortion, opposition to gun control and ties to ex-President Donald Trump and efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, the source added, noting four issues that polls show New Yorkers care far less about.
“Union, community leaders, electeds have all asked how they can help and there’s nothing,” another Democratic insider said following multiple polls showing Hochul’s once-landslide-like lead over Zeldin cut down to a nearly dead heat.
“Takes two to tango. They’re as thin-skinned as the Cuomo people, the only difference is they’re not as effective at their jobs,” the source said of Hochul and her staff compared to the notorious Gov. Andrew Cuomo, whose ouster amid scandal last year paved the way for Hochul’s unexpected rise to the top of Democrat-dominated Albany.
Experts say Hochul is increasingly at risk of becoming the first Democrat in a generation to lose a statewide election as polls show Zeldin within single digits while getting 30% support in New York City, a critical threshold for GOP candidates running statewide.
Hochul’s campaign would not comment on the charges that they are blowing the campaign and instead responded with invective for Hochul’s opponent.
“The sad, pathetic truth is Lee Zeldin’s only message is lying to New Yorkers about his anti-abortion agenda and empty plans to address public safety and voters will see right through him,” Hochul campaign spokeswoman Jen Goodman said in a statement Friday.
A SurveyUSA poll released Thursday showed Hochul with a 47% to 41% lead over Zeldin among likely voters — an 18-point swing since late August.
“That lead can vanish in the blink of an eye in a world that moves this quickly,” GOP political consultant Bill O’Reilly said.
And there is far more at stake than the statehouse. There is the looming danger that Hochul’s brushoff of Zeldin attacks on touchy issues like bail reform could drag down the Democratic ticket in races for the state Legislature and Congress, the governor’s allies say.
“Democrats are worried about the down-ballot races. There’s a lot of concern about turnout in New York City,” a Democratic strategist said.
“She needs to be more overtly political and in full campaign mode over the next three weeks — rallies, get-out-the-vote events, train stations, pure political visibility,” said Tom Watson, co-founder of the No Surrender NY PAC supporting Democratic congressional candidates.
Hochul has avoided engaging Zeldin directly, whether onstage at debates, or at big campaign events while following what political junkies call a “Rose Garden” strategy where she can leverage her day job to help win a full term in office.
These include taxpayer-funded flights on state aircraft to criss-cross New York while attracting attention from press by staging official government events like bill signings.
“In the final weeks of the race, Gov. Hochul will continue to get her record of results out to New Yorkers, from common sense gun safety laws to record-breaking economic accomplishments,” Goodman, the campaign spokeswoman, said in the statement.
Hitting the pavement more might be good to counter Zeldin’s efforts to woo voters away from her in key downstate battlegrounds, experts say.
“If I’m the Hochul campaign, I would be doing everything to juice up turnout in the Democratic strongholds, which include white liberal bastions such as the Upper West Side and Park Slope and in heavily African American neighborhoods in NYC,” Democratic strategist Trip Yang said.
The Democratic incumbent has millions more to spend than Zeldin ahead of the final day of voting Nov. 8 and registered Democrats outnumber their GOP counterparts by roughly two-to-one in New York.
Building a record campaign war chest with the help of people with business before the state has led to accusations of pay-to-play schemes by good-government groups and political rivals alike, especially when it comes to a $637 million, no-bid deal with a COVID-19 rapid testing distributor tied to $300,000 in campaign cash.
But the money has allowed Hochul to carpet-bomb the airwaves with negative ads about Zeldin, who is leaning on outside groups largely funded by conservative mega-donor Ronald Lauder to even the score since last month.
Tightening polls suggest that money has not done much good to counter incessant claims made in TV ads and on the campaign trail by Zeldin and his allies that criminal justice reforms are driving crime.
“We shouldn’t have ceded that argument to him for so long,” the first Democratic insider said of Hochul mostly avoiding direct clashes on the issue with Zeldin, who has unsuccessfully sought multiple debates.
“They’re in free fall,” the first source said of her campaign’s efforts to counter the Long Island pol’s incessant attacks in recent weeks amid damaging headlines about her donors and high-profile crimes in New York City alike.
A pivot by the incumbent Democrat might be underway given new campaign ads emphasizing economic development and public safety after months of placing abortion at the center of her messaging despite polls highlighting voters fretting about crime and rising prices.
“The Hochul campaign has to bring more focus on kitchen-table issues and leaning in on her strengths, which are the relationships she has built over the years,” said Ken Jenkins, a prominent Westchester Democrat and treasurer of the state party.
“She basically has had the same abortion-focused ad for months,” he added.
With less than three weeks left until Election Day, friends and foes alike warn the risk of political embarrassment remains for Hochul — win or lose — considering all the advantages she has had against a Trump-friendly conservative like Zeldin in supposedly super-blue New York.
“I don’t believe she is going to lose, but if she wins by less than 15 points, she’s gonna have a hard time governing. It shouldn’t be that close with a guy like Zeldin,” the first insider said.
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